On the question of "old" and "new" approaches to assessing the losses of the Ukrainian population as a result of the Holodomor of 1932–1933
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15407/uhj2018.02.179Keywords:
1932–1933 Holodomor, Ukraine, direct famine losses, excess deaths, census, migration.Abstract
This paper addresses the very important and timely controversy surrounding the estimate of population losses during the 1932–1933 Famine in Ukraine. The methodology and data used to come up with an estimate of seven million or more losses is contrasted with the methodology used by a team of demographers of the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies (IDSS) to arrive at an estimate of 3,9 million losses. The following issues of the seven million losses estimation methodology are addressed: a) data from Moscow archives vs. documents found in Kyiv archives; b) accuracy of 1932 rural population estimates and of the 1937 and 1939 censuses; c) definition of «famine losses» and methodology of their estimation. Problems with these issues are analyzed and contrasted with the approach used by the IDSS team of demographers. We show that the approach used to come up with the 7 million estimates has serious problems. It shows a lack of understanding of basic demographic and statistical concepts and of the methodology used by the IDSS team. Data used to arrive at the seven million losses are misinterpreted and the methodology used faulty. The suggested proposal for counting all the losses is shown to be unrealistic. Problems with the 7 million estimates are further illustrated by several scenarios that show unrealistic consequences in terms of migration and fertility. We conclude that the characterization of the 3,9 million estimate of losses calculated by the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies as «underestimated» is not supported by demographic evidence.
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