INFLUENCE OF MEDICAL-DEMOGRAPHIC PREDICTORS TO THE INCIDENCE OF BREAST CANCER IN UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

Summary. In the structure of cancer morbidity of the
female population of the Republic of Uzbekistan with
breast cancer (BC) it ranks first (with a specific gravidity of 11.7%). Objective: to study the effect of the major health and demographic indicators in the incidence
of BC in the Republic and its administrative regions.
Objects and methods: the dynamics of morbidity of BC
in 2001–2010 years was studied on territory of Republic and its 14 administrative regions, including a city of
Tashkent. A feedstock data of cancer-register of the Republican oncologic center and materials of official website of the State committee of statistics of Republic of
Uzbekistan served as (www.stat.uz). The calculation of
intensive and standardized indexes was conducted according to generally accepted methodical recommendations. For determination of influence of demographic factors on the indexes of morbidity of BC a pair cross-correlation analysis using Pearson’s method and forming
of linear regressive model (for the calculation of prognostic levels of morbidity equalization of linear regression)
was built. The coefficients of plural correlation (control by means of F-criterion of Fisher) were calculated.
Results: territories of enhanceable and lowered risk of
BC were educed. Morbidity of BC is related to the features of medical and demographic situation in regions.
On the level of morbidity the most considerable influence renders middle age of women (59.6%), some less
are coefficients of divorce rate (27.4%), the death rate
(11.5%) and birth-rate (−9.5%). Conclusions: on territories, where a low index of birth-rate, high coefficient
of divorce rate, to the general death rate and high middle age of women, it is possible to expect the enhanceable
level of morbidity of BC. At development of prophylactic
measures it is necessary to take into account the medical and demographic situation of region.