Reliability Assessment of the Projection of the Evolution of Research Staff in the Ukrainian R&D, Conducted by the Endogenous Method of Forecasting

Abstract

This study aiming to test the reliability of the projection of the number of researchers in Ukraine, published in 2017 and conducted by the endogenous method of forecasting, is topical because its results were informed to public administration offices as a justification of necessary amendments in the science & technology and innovation policy of Ukraine. As government policies on R&D support did not undergo any change in the latest five years, it can be made only for “chaotic option” of the evolution of the research staff in the domestic R&D.

The research objective is to estimate the coincidence between the actual change in the quantitative characteristics and age structure of Ukrainian researches in the latest years and the projection conducted in 2017 by the endogenous method of forecasting.

The analysis shows a good compliance of the projection with the actual tendencies in the evolution of the research staff in Ukraine, with the deviation of the actual number of researchers in 2016– 2019 from the projected one making 10–15 %. Because the deviation is negative, the projection of the falling number of researchers made in 2017 and seen as too pessimistic by many, proved to be more moderate than the actual decline that occurred in Ukraine.

Also, a comparison of the projected and reported data on the researchers’ dynamics by age group is made. The reported number of researchers in the age group younger than 29 was revealed to be smaller than the projected one. This demonstrates that the incoming of young people to the Ukrainian R&D was on at a slower rate after 2016 than in 2010–2015. The number of researchers in the age group 30–39 years grew due to the amendments in the domestic statistics, introduced in 2016, with the overall tendency remaining negative. As regards the age group 40–49 years, the inclusion of part-timers increased the researchers’ number that could be kept till 2018 but fell in 2019. The amendments in statistical methodology had no visible effects for the evolution of the age group 50– 59 years, which continued to follow the overall downward tendency. A comparison of reported and projected numbers of researchers in the age group 60–64 years shows that dismissals of researchers in staff in 2016–2017 due to the retirement were on at much higher scales than in previous years.

The study demonstrated the reliability of the projection of the evolution of research staff in the Ukrainian R&D, conducted by the method of endogenous forecasting, and the validity of the resulting conclusion about the urgent need for radical measures to enhance its support.