Evaluation and Forecasting of Indicators of the External Economic Sphere of Economic Security

Abstract

Introduction. An important characteristic of the national economy is economic security. In the context of globalization and the deepening interdependence of the economies of different countries, making important political decisions is impossible without taking into account the factors of the country’s economic security. An important component of the implementation of the economic security of the state is foreign economic security, which can be defined in general as a stable state of the state in the system of its foreign economic relations.

The purpose of the paper is to assess and forecast the indicators of the foreign economic security sphere of Ukraine and the corresponding integral index. Forecasting of indicators of the state of the foreign economic sphere of Ukraine was carried out using adaptive forecasting methods.

Methods. Methods of mathematical modeling, functional analysis, mathematical statistics were used.

Results. The developed information technology makes it possible to track and forecast the state of economic security of the state by industry and through the integral security index as a whole in dynamics. In particular, it ensures the prompt identification of industries with a current or potentially low level of security, determines indicators that are the source of relevant dangerous trends, and provides the ability to identify resources and use them more rationally, which should ensure an improvement in the level of security of both a separate industry and the state of economic security as a whole.

Conclusions. Assessment and forecasting of foreign economic indicators in Ukraine is a pressing problem, as the country has been in a state of economic crisis for a long time against the background of military conflict. Therefore, analysis and forecasting of the integral index of foreign economic security is a necessary tool for increasing the level of awareness of decision-makers regarding important trends in the field of foreign economic security.