Aggravation of Negative Tendencies in the Dynamics of R&D Personnel in the NAS of Ukraine

Abstract

This study is important because the downward tendencies in the total researchers have been not only persisting and aggravating, which makes the measures for their stabilization even more urgent. The purpose of the study is to determine the scales and consequences of this change. To do so, a forecasting and analytical study of the evolution of the human resources in the National Academy of Sciences (NAS of Ukraine is conducted by use data for most recent years including 2018. Based on the method of endogenous forecasting of the evolution of the human resources of R&D, developed by the authors earlier, the age structure of researchers of the NAS of Ukraine is calculated, who leave R&D, moving on to other activities, and it is also shown that in 2013—2018 the possibilities to stabilize the number of Academy researchers, not mentioning its recovering, have significantly worsened. While the previously published calculations taking account of the trends in the dynamics of researchers of the NAS of Ukraine until 2015 allowed the authors to conclude that if the government support were not increased, the total number of the Academy researchers would fell by 30 % by 2025 (up to 12860 people), taking into account of the trends in the dynamics of human resources observed over the past 5 years till 2018 leads to the conclusion that the drop in the researcher’s number will be almost twice higher, i. e. 57.3 % (to approx. 10,738 people in 2025). Also, in 2015 one could hope that the increasing youth recruitment by 10 % per year would stabilize the number of researchers in about 5 years, with the number of researchers growing in 2025 and on. Taking into account the trends of 2013— 2018 shows that today it is not enough: the annual growth rate of youth replenishment needs to be at least 15 %. If even it reaches 20 %, the decline in the researchers’ number will continue until at least 2023. This is because given the age pattern of researchers their likely loss as a result of natural mortality was higher than the youth replenishment in 2018. It is significant that the conducted forecasting and analytical studies also demonstrate the impending collapse the R&D personnel in the NAS of Ukraine. The results obtained demonstrate the pressing need for urgent measures to strengthen government support for the NAS of Ukraine, without which it is impossible to stop the collapse of its human resources. If they are postponed, significantly more time and greater costs will be needed to correct the situation.