Searching for Optimal Dynamics of Building up the Human Resources of the Ukrainian R&D in the Period of Its Post-War Recovery

Abstract

The article presents a new modification of the endogenous method for forecasting the evolution of the human resources in R&D, used for forecasting the dynamics of the number of researchers. It shows that the human resources in the Ukrainian R&D are in crisis, and their numerical decline will continue even if the number of young people enrolled in research institutions stabilizes. This is because the age structure of researchers is such that the probable number of losses due to natural mortality exceeds the youth replenishment, and the difference between them will grow as the share of older age groups increases. As shown by the calculations, it is the reason why the stabilization or halt of the annual decline in the number of young people enrolled in R&D will not slow down the rate of decline in the total number of researchers. A certain but insignificant increase after 2030 can occur only when 30 percent annual increase in the youth replenishment will be reached. This gives evidence of the urgency of measures to make the research profession more attractive to young people, which must be drastic enough to stop the degradation of the human resources in the national R&D. Otherwise, for a long time the Ukrainian economy will not have an adequate R&D support for the innovative development. Several options of the recovery dynamics of the human resources in the Ukrainian R&D were calculated, to demonstrate the possibility of finding the optimal sequence of actions for its implementation. The authors’ estimates showing how the age structure of the total research personnel is expected to change along with their numerical increase are given.