EXPANDED REPRODUCTION OF UKRAINE’S ECONOMY UNDER POST-WAR CONSTRAINTS

Abstract

The study focuses on theoretical and methodological rethinking of the model of expanded social reproduction, which can be employed in post-war transformation of Ukrainian economy and the formation of a data-driven civilization. This model is based on a reproductive approach considering demographic losses, destruction of production potential of Ukraine, structural imbalances and the growing role of algorithmic capital. The limitations of normative and fragmentary models of expanded reproduction for the analysis of economic dynamics under structural uncertainty and resource constraints are proven.

The study provides both theoretical justification and empirical evidence of the limited analytical and practical potential of normative and fragmented models of expanded reproduction as tools for analyzing economic dynamics under conditions of structural uncertainty and resource constraints, as well as their insufficient effectiveness in improving public governance processes.

The paper proposes an unorthodox interpretation of the organic composition of capital, which takes into account the reification of managerial and cognitive labor in the form of data, algorithms, digital models and artificial intelligence systems. The specifics of reifying the information as a factor of production, capable of repeatedly participating in the creation of surplus value without classical depreciation and of increasing economic value through synergistic effects, is substantiated. The concept of the cybernetic structure of production as a structural parameter of algorithmization and information saturation of the reproductive process is developed.

The ratios C / V and Kc / (C + V) are formalized, and on this basis a three-factor dynamic model r = f(C / V, Kc, L*) is developed, which integrates the structural configuration of capital, the level of algorithmization of production and management, and effective labor into a unified analytical framework for modeling the rate of profit, as well as the dynamics and proportions of expanded reproduction, with the possibility of further empirical verification of its parameters.

The growth of the cybernetic component is shown to modify the configuration of economic dynamics factors and expand the boundaries of the capital-intensive and labor-saving development trajectory.

The results of scenario modeling conducted as part of the activities of the Center for Situation Modeling as a division of the Institute for System Statistical Studies confirm the need for institutional consolidation of this model as the basic one for the post-war period and form a methodological foundation for adjusting the state's budgetary, investment and regulatory policies in accordance with the parameters of the reproductive equilibrium, determined within the three-factor dynamic configuration, taking into account the impact of changes in the levels of organic and cybernetic composition of capital on the rate and volume of profit, investment dynamics, including in innovation-driven sectors of the economy, and the speed of capital turnover.