UNCERTAINTY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

Uncertainty becomes a major factor inhibiting investments and the economic development of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the neoclassical school, being “main stream” of the modern economic thought, still defines the general orientation of practical activities in the sphere of the economic policy. This implies that a more complete account for the uncertainty factor can overcome this separation from life and become a theoretical basis for the development of new practical recommendations for the economic policy at the national and regional levels. Therefore, the main tasks of the research are the statement of the problem of a more complete account for the uncertainty factor in the economic theory and the justification of an alternative approach based on these theoretical positions to the management of the process of economic development. In particular, it is possible to adjust the investment uncertainty through its redistribution between different levels of the investment system in order to stimulate private investments. Such redistribution of uncertainty involves the investment system of a new type with an institution of development that performs the role of the Central investment Bank in the center of this system. It buys shares of new enterprises, by financing their creation. Then, when the enterprises begin to work, this institution will sell them into private hands. These enterprises will operate on a private basis and will compete with other enterprises in the market economy in the future. Thereby, the Central investment Bank takes on “lion’s share” of the uncertainty and liberates private investors from the burden of uncertainty. The result is a redistribution of the uncertainty from one level of the system to another one. The main conclusion is that the equilibrium paradigm, which dominates in modern economic theory, needs to be complemented by a nonequilibrium approach to the analysis of the economy in order to better account for the uncertainty not only in theory, ut also in practice.