BUDGETARY FINANCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE INTEGRATION OF UKRAINE TO EC

Abstract

The consequences of 5 probable scenarios of the relations between Ukraine and European Union (EU) for the sector of Ukraine’s state finances are analyzed. In particular, the following versions of the development of relations are considered: the refusal of a deepened collaboration; execution of the positions of the Ukraine--EU Association Agreement; receipt of a candidate status from EU; relations in the format typical of countries of EFTA; membership in EU. It is determined that each of the formats of relations will have positive and negative budgetary financial consequences. If the two-sided relations will be deepened, the principal advantages will be revealed in the extension of the participation of our state in programs and agencies of EU and the growth of the economic taxation base in a long-term period. The negative points will be the expenditures related to the necessity to adapt to EU’s standards and the payment of instalments for the participation in programs and agencies of EU, and a decrease in the economic taxation base in a short-term period. By the ratio of expenditures (losses) and incomes exclusively in the sphere of state’s finances in a short-term period with the same other conditions, the conservation of a status quo in the relations between Ukraine and EU looks somewhat more attractive, than those in the format of the Ukraine--EU Association Agreement. However, in a long-term period, the situation changes polarly. The full-right membership of Ukraine in EU will become beneficial from the position of state’s finances, if our country at the time moment of the entry will lag behind EU by such indicators as the GNI per person and by the share of nonagrarian sectors in the economy. However, the essential lag by those indicators will mean the unacceptability of the perspective of the membership of Ukraine in EU from the side of EU itself. But if a certain parity with appropriate indicators of EU will be attained or the unfavorable political circumstances will be formed, it is necessary to consider the ways of further eurointegrative movement, which are alternative to the membership, in particular, the format of the relations of countries of EFTA with EU.