FORESIGHT ANALYTICAL SYSTEM FOR FORMING STATE SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION POLICY IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The paper explores the problem of forming state science, technology and innovation (STI) policy under conditions of high geopolitical and economic uncertainty, further aggravated by the structural fragmentation of scientific and technological priorities in Ukraine. An integrated foresight analytical system designed as a closed analytical loop for supporting strategic decisions has been developed, and medium- and long-term STI development priorities have been substantiated.

The proposed methodology combines scenario foresight modeling, structural analysis of drivers (PESTLE–AHP–FCM), OSINT monitoring of technological trends, Delphi–AHP expert procedures, and macroeconomic validation using system dynamics models and Leontief input-output models. As a result of the reduction of the initial scenario space (2³ = 8 configurations), three basic STI development scenarios have been identified – “Technological Convergence,” “Selective Adaptation,” and “Inertial Stagnation” – which demonstrate significant differentiation of key development parameters. Comparative analysis reveals a clear relationship: as R&D funding increases, the country’s key economic indicators improve. In particular, an increase in R&D expenditure from less than 1% to 2.5–3% of GDP is accompanied by economic growth acceleration from 1–2% to 5–7% and an increase in the share of high-tech exports from 4–6% to 15—20%. The integrated performance index of the scenarios differs by a factor of 7–8 between the baseline scenarios and by up to 80–90 between the extreme ones, confirming the decisive role of investment in science and technology as a driver of economic growth.

The practical outcome is the integration of the foresight analytical system into STI strategic management mechanisms through the use of a payoff matrix, an integrated policy effectiveness indicator (PolicyS ≈ 457; 76; 8.4), a system of early warning indicators (EWI), and a policy response matrix (PRM). A two-level system of state scientific and technological priorities has been developed: medium-term priorities (until 2030), focused on technological mobilization, and long-term priorities (until 2035), aimed at reindustrialization, technological sovereignty, and the transition to a knowledge-based economy. The proposed approach creates an analytical framework for the formation of an adaptive, evidence-based state STI policy.