EVENT-BASED ASSESSMENT OF THE WORLD ECONOMY DYNAMICS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15407/economyukr.2026.01.018Keywords:
US customs policy; modeling of the world economy's response; decadal analysis; dummy variable; external shocks; PMI (manufacturing and services); external events assessment; adaptive economic policyAbstract
The authors of the study carried out event-based modeling of the response of the world economy to external shocks (customs, geoeconomic and geopolitical) and assessed their impact on its dynamics. A stochastic relationship between the chronology of external events and changes in the values of global macroeconomic performance indicators, such as global GDP and world trade volumes, PMI (manufacturing and services), etc. was established. Short-term responses of the global economic environment to external signals / shocks were identified, the intensity of the impact of these external events on the world economy dynamics was modeled. For this purpose, the magnitude and significance level of the stochastic relationship between the chronology of external events, which is formalized as a dummy variable, and the dynamics of global macroeconomic indicators’ values were assessed.
The authors proposed a methodology for constructing a composite indicator for assessing the state of the world economy, which makes it possible to average (to calculate the mean) the values of four partial indicators. A significant impact of external events and shocks on the dynamics of the values of these indicators and the composite world economy dynamics indicator was established. It was proven that the proposed model allows for a prompt response to shock events, performing the role of a monitoring system. At the same time, its effectiveness was shown to increase significantly provided that it functions as the most important component of situation modeling centers (SMC).
Study findings have both scientific value and practical significance for governments of countries that must promptly counteract external shocks, improving public administration system, especially during periods of turbulence in the world economic system and, as a result, high volatility of global macroeconomic indicators.
References
Keynes, J. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Macmillan Cambridge University Press. URL: https://www.marxists.org/reference/subject/economics/keynes/general-theory/
Krugman, P. (2009). The Return of Depression Economics. New York, W.W. Norton & Company, Inc. URL: https://www.academia.edu/8782383/Krugman_Paul_The_Return_of_Depression_Econom
Stiglitz, J. (2002). Globalization and Its Discontents. Economic Notes, 32 (1), 123-142. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.0391-5026.2003.00107.x
Stiglitz, J. (2012). The Price of Inequality: How Today’s Divided Society Endangers Our Future. 2nd ed. New York, W.W. Norton & Company. 21 p. URL: https://business.columbia.edu/sites/default/files-efs/imce-uploads/Joseph_Stiglitz/Price%20of%20Inequality%20for%20Sustainable%20Humanity.pdf
Hayek, F. von (1944). The Road to Serfdom. London, Routledge. 199 p. URL: https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/R/bo4138549.html
Sargent, T. (2015). Robert E. Lucas Jr.'s Collected Papers on Monetary Theory. Journal of Economic Literature. Vol. 53. Iss. 1. P. 43-64. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.53.1.43
Reinhart, C., Rogoff, K. (2009). This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press. 512 p. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400831722
Bhagwati, J. (2004). In Defense of Globalization. New York, Oxford University Press. URL: https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/books/191/
Roubini, N., Mihm, S. (2010). Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance. New York, The Penguin Press. 301 p. URL: https://kuangaliablog.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/mihm-stephen_-roubini-nouriel-crisis-economics-_-a-crash-course-in-the-future-of-finance-penguin-press-2010.pdf
Bernanke, B. (2015). The Courage to Act: A Memoir of a Crisis and Its Aftermath. New York, W.W. Norton & Company. URL: https://ypfsresourcelibrary.blob.core.windows.net/fcic/YPFS/MemoirofaCrisisanditsAftermath-3.pdf
North, D. (2000). Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance. Kyiv. 196 p. URL: https://shron1.chtyvo.org.ua/North_Douglass/Instytutsii_instytutsiina_zmina_ta_funktsionuvannia_ekonomiky [in Ukrainian].
Coase, R. (2001). The Nature of the Firm. URL: https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B0_%D1%84%D1%96%D1%80%D0%BC%D0%B8 [in Ukrainian].
Heyets, V. (2020). The phenomenon of instability as a challenge to economic development. Kyiv, Akademperiodyka. 456 p. https://doi.org/10.15407/akademperiodyka.403.456 [in Ukrainian].
Heyets, V. (Ed.) (2003). Economy of Ukraine: strategy and policy of long-term development. Kyiv. 1008 p. URL: https://ief.org.ua/publication/monohrafii/2003/ekonomika-ukrainy-stratehija-i-polityka-dovhostrokovoho-rozvytku [in Ukrainian].
Chukhno, A. (2012). Economic modernization and economic theory. Economy of Ukraine. No. 10. P. 24-33. URL: http://www.irbis-nbuv.gov.ua/cgi-bin/irbis_nbuv/cgiirbis_64.exe?I21DBN=LINK&P21DBN=UJRN&Z21ID=&S21REF=10&S21CNR=20&S21STN=1&S21FMT=ASP_meta&C21COM=S&2_S21P03=FILA=&2_S21STR=EkUk_2012_10_3 [in Ukrainian].
Halchynskyi, A. (2006). Global Transformations: Conceptual Alternatives. Methodological Aspects. Kyiv. 310 p. URL: https://irbis-nbuv.gov.ua/publ/REF-0000082594 [in Ukrainian].
Halchynskyi, A. (2009). Crisis and cycles of world development. Kyiv. 391 p. URL: https://irbis-nbuv.gov.ua/publ/REF-0000112985 [in Ukrainian].
Grytsenko, A. (2017). Architectonics of economic security. Kyiv. 224 p. URL: https://nvd-nanu.org.ua/78174202-0a3d-07f8-5a0b-c32e4a63f0ff/ [in Ukrainian].
Grytsenko, A. (2022). Strategies of economic stability in unstable environment. Economy and forecasting. No. 3. P. 33-43. https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2022.03.033 [in Ukrainian].
Korablin, S. (2018). The Great Neoliberal Recession (2008-2009): Experience and Lessons from US Anti-Crisis Policy. In: Global Trends and Prospects: World Economy and Ukraine. Kyiv. 202 p. P. 27-45. URL: https://razumkov.org.ua/uploads/article/2018_global_trendns.pdf [in Ukrainian].
Korablin, S. (2022). Ukraine: the financial dimension of the war. Visn. Nac. Acad. Nauk Ukr. No. 7. P. 39-41. URL: https://nasu-periodicals.org.ua/index.php/visnyk/article/view/10221/9405 [in Ukrainian].
Mantsurov, I. (2023). Statistics as the basis for a data-driven economy. Kyiv. 282 p. [in Ukrainian].
Shevchuk, T., Sidelnуk, E., Kravchuk, H. (2021). Analysis of the corona crisis’ impact on the economy of Ukraine. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/353457013_ANALIZ_VPLIVU_KORONAKRIZI_NA_EKONOMIKU_UKRAINI [in Ukrainian].
Eickmeier, S., Prieto, E., Kolb, B. (2023). Effects of Bank Capital Requirement Tightenings on Inequality. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/379926636_Effects_of_Bank_Capital_Requirement_Tightenings_on_Inequality
Mohaddes, K., Raissi, M. (2024). Compilation, Revision and Updating of the Global VAR (GVAR) Database, 1979Q2-2023Q3. University of Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.104755
Galati, A., Alaimo, L., Fiore, M. (2020). How the COVID-19 pandemic is changing online food shopping human behaviour in Italy. Sustainability, 12(22), 9594. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12229594
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Publisher PH "Academperiodyka" of the NAS of Ukraine
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
