OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS ON THE PATH TO REALIZING THE POTENTIAL OF UKRAINE’S CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15407/economyukr.2025.12.060Keywords:
critical raw materials; Industry 4.0; raw materials potential of UkraineAbstract
The global transition to a “green” and digital economy is driving a rapid increase in demand for critical raw materials (CRMs). Their limited availability, complexity of processing, and strategic role in high-tech industries make them a key factor in geoeconomic competition. China’s dominance in mining and processing is driving the USA and the EU to diversify supplies and seek new partners. Ukraine has proven reserves of 25 out of 34 elements identified by the EU as critical, including lithium, graphite, titanium, uranium, and rare earth metals, making it a promising participant in global supply chains. However, war risks, occupation of some deposits, institutional weakness and lack of modern processing infrastructure hinder the realization of this potential. A SWOT analysis with a quantitative assessment of factors shows a relative balance of strengths (reserves, geography, partnership with the EU and the USA) and weaknesses (war and institutional risks). Opportunities (demand growth, creation of national CRMs hub, technological partnership, post-war reconstruction) somewhat outweigh threats (loss of control over deposits, "raw material appendage" risk, environmental consequences).
A CRMs development "roadmap" for the next decade is proposed, based on the analysis conducted and taking into account international experience, in particular Australia’s. It concerns the protection of strategic deposits, data digitalization and deregulation of access to subsoil, the creation of processing infrastructure and research centers, as well as the formation of national CRMs hub and integration into transatlantic supply chains.
It is concluded that the effective use of CRMs resource potential can become one of the key drivers of the post-war economic transformation of Ukraine and strengthen its geopolitical agency.
References
Baranowski, M., Jabkowski, P., Kammen, D. (2025). From the Russian invasion of Ukraine to the battlefield of the future: The geopolitical fight for Ukraine's mineral wealth. Energy Research & Social Science. 113. 103652. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2025.104043
Mykhailov, V., Hrinchenko, O., Malyuk, B. (2023). Exploration and mining perspectives of the critical elements for green technologies in Ukraine. Geological Society of London. 526. 267-287. https://doi.org/10.1144/SP526-2021-133
Groves, D., Santosh, M., Müller, D. (2025). The heterogeneous distribution of critical metal mineral resources: An impending geopolitical issue. Geosystems and Geoenvironment. 4(1). 100093. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geogeo.2024.100288
Nygaard, A. (2022). The Geopolitical Risk and Strategic Uncertainty of Green Growth after the Ukraine Invasion: How the Circular Economy Can Decrease the Market Power of and Resource Dependency on Critical Minerals. Circular Economy and Sustainability. 3. 1099-1126. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43615-022-00181-x
Mykhailov, V., Malyuk, B., Bovsunivskyi, P., Kovalenko, N. (2023). Strategic minerals of Ukraine and their investment attractiveness. BRGM, 2023. 293 p. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/392904136_Strategic_minerals_of_Ukraine_and_their_investment_attractiveness
Drahan, I., Shpak, Yu. (2024). Anti-corruption standards in public administration. Dnipro Scientific Journal of Public Administration, Psychology, Law. 6. 7-14. URL: https://chasopys-ppp.dp.ua/index.php/chasopys/article/view/684 [in Ukrainian].
Disner, G., Tareq, S. (2025). Emerging water contaminants in developing countries: Detection, monitoring, and impact of xenobiotics. Frontiers in Water. 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2025.1584752
Shynkaruk, L., Dielini, М., Kendus, D. (2022). Directions of socially responsible management of agricultural enterprises under the conditions of sustainable development. Internauka. 1(57). 93-99. https://doi.org/10.25313/2520-2294-2022-1-7912
Balaram, V., Santosh, M. (2025). New challenges of critical minerals for energy security: Impacts on environment and human health, and remediation strategies for sustainability. Gondwana Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2025.07.001
Srivastava, V., Werner, J., Honaker, R. (2023). Design of multi-stage solvent extraction process for separation of rare earth elements. Mining. 3(3). 552-578. https://doi.org/10.3390/mining3030031
Shin, J. (2024). Battery Recycling: Policy and Technology Trends. ECS Meeting Abstracts. MA2024-02. Z03. https://doi.org/10.1149/MA2024-02694838mtgabs
Babiy, K., Bubnova, O., Maleyev, Ye., Ryumina, D., Levchenko, K., Ikol, O. (2024). Strategic mineral resources of Ukraine. Dnipro. 324 p. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/390199010_Resursi_strategicnih_korisnih_kopalin_Ukraini [in Ukrainian].
Goldthau, A. (2024). The Race for Clean Transition Materials and EU Geoeconomic Statecraft. In: Geopolitics and Economic Statecraft in the European Union. P. 61-70. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/386292904
Heyets, V. (2023). Formation of the profile of strategically important industrial activity types in Ukraine (an outlook). Economy of Ukraine. 66. 9(742). 3-29. https://doi.org/10.15407/economyukr.2023.09.003 [in Ukrainian].
Lozhnikov, S., Pavlychenko, A., Shustov, O., Dereviahina, N. (2024). Prospects for the lithium deposits development in Ukraine. E3S Web of Conferences. 526. 01001. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202452601001
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Publisher PH "Academperiodyka" of the NAS of Ukraine
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
