MODELING THE ECONOMIC SECURITY OF AN IT ENTERPRISE UNDER EXTERNAL INSTABILITY OF THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

Abstract

A comprehensive economic and mathematical model for assessing the level of economic security of an IT enterprise in the face of external economic instability is presented. The proposed approach covers internal financial and economic indicators such as profit, production cost, liquidity, and investment volume, as well as external factors including regulatory risks, tax and legal changes, and market instability, which manifests through variability in demand, competition, and exchange rate fluctuations.

The approach enables the assessment of the complex interaction between internal and external factors that determine overall enterprise resilience. The model is implemented in Python using methods of logarithmization, normalization, regression analysis, simulation modeling, and weight coefficient optimization. This ensures the formation of an integral indicator of economic security that quantitatively reflects the enterprise’s ability to respond effectively to changes in the economic environment and adapt to unpredictable conditions.

The model was tested on several Ukrainian IT companies, confirming its ability to reflect general trends in economic resilience and sensitivity to key risk factors. Comparative analysis across different enterprises made it possible to identify critical internal and external parameters that affect operational security and to formulate practical recommendations for risk management.

The developed model can serve as an analytical tool for strategic planning, assessing economic resilience, and integrating with modern business analytics systems such as Power BI, Tableau, or Qlik Sense, to inform the development of an effective security policy in the digital business environment. This will help increase overall enterprise competitiveness and ensure long-term growth.