INFLUENCE OF UKRAINE'S FOREIGN TRADE STRUCTURE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CONTEXT OF INVOLVEMENT IN GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15407/economyukr.2019.02.022Keywords:
exports structure; economic growth; global value chains; technological exports; technological import; vector autoregressionAbstract
The interrelation between the volumes of export-import, GDP and industrial production is researched. This allows identifying the ways to increase the technological level of exports as a prerequisite for successful integration in global value chains (GVC). Fragmentation of the world production is usually regarded as a defining feature of a globalized economy; at the same time, the technological complication of production is necessary for successful competition in foreign markets.
The sectoral influence of export-import on GDP and industrial production is evaluated, which is important for identifying promising areas for the participation of Ukrainian enterprises in the GVCs. For empirical research, a structural analysis of domestic foreign trade was carried out in the context of the four main categories: (i) technological goods; (ii) low-tech products; (iii) metal products; (iv) other raw materials. Quarterly 1998-2016 data were used for empirical estimation. The research methodology included the use of a vector autoregression model with error correction (Vector Error-Correction Model – VECМ). Empirical results indicate a clear stimulating effect of technological and low-tech exports on the dynamics of industrial production, whereas exports of metallurgical and agricultural products have a restriction effect. At the same time, technological exports significantly stimulate other segments of the export sector, while technological imports do not contribute to an increase in industrial production.
Based on the research, it is substantiated that competitive participation in the GVCs implies primarily technological complication of exports, but with the possibility of using productive links within the national economy (in particular, integration of lower technological structures into production chains and replacement of import of technological goods). It is emphasized that the prerequisites for the integration of individual export sectors into competitive value chains are based on the development of labor-intensive production, subject to dynamic wage growth.
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