LIGHT AND SHADOW OF THE ECONOMY OF UKRAINE: RESERVES FOR GROWTH AND MODERNIZATION
Keywords:
shadow economy, interpretation of contribution to GDP, de-shadowing, country, type of economic activity, regionsAbstract
The article is devoted to interpreting the indicator of the shadow economy regarding its impact on official GDP and determination of internal and external shadow contributions of the official GDP at the level of country, main types of economic activity and regions. Analysis of advantages and disadvantages of existing methods for assessing the shadow economy was carried out; it is proved that it has both negative and positive traits. Unfortunately, existing methods of estimating the shadow GDP do not provide an answer to the questions: which part of GDP is created in addition to the official GDP and which part of GDP is created by shadow economic activity? Therefore, some experts suggest interpretation of indicator of the shadow economy, according to which the de-shadowing will not allow finding the significant additional economic resources, but will only contribute to their redistribution.
A method for evaluating the shadow economic activity (the "social justice method") is considered, which (i) provides answers to the questions raised, (ii) is a universal one, (iii) by functional possibilities surpasses all existing methods. A hypothesis has been proved about inverse relationship between share of wages in output and the level of shadowing the economy, what is the basis for determining the volumes of shadow GDP, shadow employment, shadow wages and other shadow indicators.
The proposed interpretation of indicator of the shadow economy states that there are two parts of the shadow GDP (GVA, GRP): the first, which is not considered by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and is an addition to the official GDP due to an artificial increase in intermediate consumption; the second is created by the shadow wages through the consumption multiplier and is part of the official GDP. Therefore, it is necessary to struggle not with the shadow part of the official GDP, but with its external unaccounted part.
Thus, the correct redistribution of income between labor and capital will lead to a reduction in shadow incomes and increase in the level of wages in the output, wages, domestic consumption, investment and GDP. So, the shadow economy can be very important colossal reserve for economic recovery.
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