SCENARIO ASSESSMENTS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN UKRAINE UNDER CONDITIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS

Abstract

Under present conditions, the structure of agriculture is increasingly adjusted due to the need to adapt production to the growing intensity of climate change. These changes can have both positive results and negative effects – depending on the natural and climatic characteristics of agricultural territories. Adaptation to climate change calls for virtually all agricultural producers and other subjects of the food chain to introduce new methods of managing and make systemic changes in the strategy of its activities.
Although Ukraine is not yet included in the list of countries, which are most vulnerable to global climate changes, the consequences of such changes are becoming far more tangible also on its territory. In order to assess the likely implications for the branch and agricultural producers from structural adjustment of production towards its adaptation to climate changes through the use of innovations, an analytical model was developed. In this model, the impact of climate changes on agriculture is reflected by fluctuations in the sectoral structure of production through the leading agricultural crop production, as well as by the number of cattle as an important component of the rational agriculture.
In the context of studies of the effect of climate change on agricultural production development and evaluation of results of adaptation technologies implementation, indicators of success of activities being implemented are proposed: stabilization and growth of the level of humus; reducing the volatility of yield of all kinds of crops; rationalization of agricultural production structure.
It is also pointed out the need to focus on assessment of vulnerability of natural resources (especially in the area of Steppe) and willingness of agricultural producers to adapt to climate change, on facilitating the small and medium-sized producers to expand the sources of funding activities for the introduction of adaptation practices; on establishment of an effective system of subsidized agricultural insurance (in particular, from weather risks).