EXTERNAL DEBT BURDEN AND CHALLENGES FOR THE CURRENCY-FINANCIAL POLICY OF UKRAINE

Abstract

The main trends in the sphere of Ukraine’s external debt dynamics are revealed, the risks of its debt position are determined, and the indicators of debt sustainability are analyzed. It is concluded that Ukraine violates the basic criteria of debt sustainability. In two last years, the problems related to the excessive debt load and the unbalanced currency-financial position of the country acquire a critical character. The role of foreign capital flows in the sharpening of the bank and currency crises and in the appearance of the economic crisis in 2014–2015 is clarified. The presence of the so-called “triple” financial crisis (bank, currency, and debt ones), which is running under a deep economic recession, in Ukraine is shown. It is emphasized that the debt crisis in Ukraine is manifested as the sovereign-debt crisis and the crisis of corporative debts. In this case, the main means of regulation of the debt crisis are the restructurization of the debt and its conversion in property assets. The main factors of the debt crisis became the loss of possibilities for the refinancing of debts from private sources and the triple increase in the load of a service of external debts due to the hryvna devaluation. The most weighty factors of influence on the dynamics of the “EMBI-Ukraine” spread are determined, and the conclusion is drawn that the renewal of the assess of Ukrainian subjects to the international market of capitals requires the attainment of positive changes in the dynamics of Ukraine’s GDP, enhancement of the national competitiveness, increase in Ukraine’s international reserves to the level of minimally admissible values, and decrease in the relative value of state’s debt. The following priorities of state’s economic policy, which must ensure a softening of the destructive influence of debt processes and the stabilization of the currency-financial situation in the country, are substantiated: the shift of accents from the debt to nondebt sources of external financing, namely, the stimulation of the inflow of direct foreign investments; active entry to the economic turnover of internal savings as an alternative to external ones due to a sanitation of the banking system and the development of the internal market of capitals; termination of the “flight” of the domestic capital abroad and stimulation of the return of removed capitals.