INFLUENCE OF A CHANGE IN CLIMATIC CONDITIONS ON THE DYNAMICS OF THE CROP YIELD OF CEREALS IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The efficient development of the grain production requires the scientific substantiation of a rational arrangement of sown areas for cereals with regard for the yield capacity and climatic conditions. For the last decades, the weather-climatic conditions of Ukraine’s regions were essentially changed. This caused a change in the assortment of grown cereals and in the geography of their position. The purpose of the present work is the study of the changes of climatic conditions on the crop yield of cereals in Ukraine and its separate regions. We have carried out the statistical studies of the weather-climatic factors and the crop yield of cereals for various regions of Ukraine for 24 last years. The input data are as follows: annual values of the crop yield of cereals in Ukraine’s regions, mean monthly temperatures and monthly sums of precipitations by the data of meteostations located on the territories of the corresponding regions in 1991–2014.
The executed cluster analysis results in the separation of three groups of regions, each of which is characterized by the one-type dynamics of the crop yield and climatic factors. The analysis of the dynamics of the crop yield of cereals in the separated clusters indicates that the mean crop yield of cereals increased mostly in regions of the central part (from 27 to 50 centner/ha). The mean crop yield of cereals in western regions increased from 29 to 43 centner/ha. In the step region, the crop yield of cereals increased insignificantly: from 26 to 29 centner/ha. The performed studies testify to the essential changes in the climate in Ukraine’s regions in the period 1991–2014. This caused the direct influence on the changes in the crop yield of cereals. The significant warming, which was accompanied by a decrease in the amount of precipitations, had occurred. In the 1990s, the main grain producer was the step region. In the last decade, country’s central part has come to the first place. Its regions have not only the highest crop yield of cereals, but also the best dynamics of its growth. These changes should be taken into account in the planning of the sowing of cereals and in the organization of the corresponding infrastructure for their processing, зберігання, storage, and sale.