STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS UNDER THE ACTION OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EC – UKRAINE ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT

Abstract

Structural changes in the external trade in domestic agricultural products, which appeared due to a complication of the trade relations with the Russian Federation (RF) after the signing the EC–Ukraine Association Agreement, are analyzed, and some recommendations as for the measures of the trade policy in the trade in agricultural products with RF are substantiated.
The tendency to a gradual decrease in the export of domestic agricultural products to countries of the Customs union, which was characteristic of the recent years, was strongly intensified in 2014, and there exists a real threat to lose the markets of RF. These losses were not compensated at the expense of the export in other geographic directions (including EC).
The analysis of scenarios of the trade policy of RF after the expected introduction of the two-sided free-trade regime between Ukraine and EC in 2016 showed that, under conditions of the application of tariffs in the MFT of WTO to domestic agricultural products instead of the zero tariffs in the frame of ZFT of CIS, the Ukrainian exporters of these products will lose 25% of the cost of the agricultural food export to RF as compared 2013.
For the counter restriction of the import of agricultural products from RF, it is expedient to use the nontariff measures such as sanitary, phytosanitary, or technical regulations, rather than bans (in the framework of sanctions), which do not correspond to positions of art. XI GATT/WTO and to obligations of Ukraine relative to WTO. The restrictions have sense for the commodity lines with the largest share in the Russian import, negative balance in the trade with RF, and a significant part in the total import of the corresponding commodity line.