GLOBAL MULTIPOLARITY: NEW OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINIAN EXPORTS

Abstract

One of the topical areas of modern economics is predicting the implications of global multipolarity. Their analysis in the fields of international politics and international trade law gave grounds for suggesting that global multipolarity creates both new opportunities and additional threats for the development of smaller developing economies. To test the hypothesis on data collected in the field of economy, it is proposed to analyze these opportunities and threats as strong and weak trade incentives formed by countries which are new actual and potential global growth poles when purchasing raw materials and products of increased technological complexity in smaller developing economies. To implement this scientific method, a set of methodological and methodical approaches has been developed to correct the list and rank actual and potential global growth poles, to evaluate their shares in the purchase of products of increased technological complexity.
Approbation of the proposed scientific approaches on the example of Ukraine revealed that on international markets, the additional demand from China and potential global growth poles from among countries with emerging markets creates strong trade incentives for revitalizing economic activity in domestic export industries producing raw materials and products of their shallow processing, and the weak ones – in industries producing products of increased technological complexity. Therefore, further rapid inertial expansion of Ukraine's trade with these countries will certainly increase the risks of slowdown in qualitative (structural) changes in domestic foreign trade in favor of products of increased technological complexity. The obtained empirical data confirm the assumption of Western scientists that global multipolarity creates additional threats to the development of smaller developing economies, as it encourages them to retain the role of raw materials supplier to world markets in the future.