CHALLENGES FROM THE OFFER AND DEMAND SIDES OF THE UKRAINIAN ECONOMY DURING THE MILITARY ACTIONS AND ASSESSMENT OF THEIR IMPACT ON MACRODYNAMICS

Abstract

Mass destruction of almost all types of infrastructure, the death of thousands of Ukrainian militaries and civilians, migration of millions of refugees abroad have already become the consequences of a full-scale war in Ukraine. The destruction of the infrastructure eliminated the assets of enterprises and complicated or disrupted the supply chains of both raw materials and finished products. A severe situation emerged in the agricultural sector, where the essential abundance of the country, namely fertile agricultural land, is being polluted and destroyed. It is difficult to predict the further development of the economic situation in the Ukrainian economy, specifically due to the fact that the war continues and the economic system suffers new losses every day. The consequences of hostilities in territories that must be liberated remain uncertain, as well as the terms of the end of hostilities. However, it is obvious already that the main challenges for offer and demand, which the Ukrainian economy will face in the near future, will be destroyed infrastructure, damaged or mined agricultural lands, a significant drop in the personal sector, and the scale of population movement outside the country. All this will negatively affect the consumer demand of the domestic market in general and the service sector in particular, and the offer of Ukrainian producers of several consumer goods will remain insufficient to satisfy even the narrowed demand of the domestic market. Under the conditions of the cessation of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine by the end of the current year, the dynamics of Ukraine's GDP will emerge from last year's deep recession but be unfavorable according to the results of the year 2023.