GRAIN EXPORT OF UKRAINE IN THE CONDITIONS OF WAR

Abstract

Ways and problems of grain export of Ukraine in the conditions of the war are studied. The main ways to restore grain exports are the Ukraine-EU "solidarity lanes" and the Black Sea Grain Initiative. However, these measures only partially solved the problem of grain exports from Ukraine in 2022 — at the beginning of 2023. In 2022, the Ukrainian grain exports decreased by 32.6% compared to the previous year's volume of exports. The full-scale military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine caused a sharp increase in world prices for wheat, and the initiation of "solidarity lanes" and the maritime grain corridor contributed to their significant decrease, particularly for grain. However, domestic grain producers and exporters were unable to take advantage of the rise in world grain prices in 2022 due to increased transport costs for transportation to ports, growth in intermediate sellers' margins taking into account wartime risks, increased ship freight costs, etc. Corresponding losses in the price of grain when exported from Ukraine are transferred along the grain price chain mainly to its lower link — the grain producer. The producer's share (on EXW terms) in the export price of 2nd class wheat decreased from 80% at the beginning of the maritime grain corridor activity to 67% when exported through the maritime grain corridor in February 2023.

Serious risks for the post-war recovery of Ukrainian grain exports are the relocation processes of trade flows in traditional grain export markets from the Black Sea region, primarily related to the replacement of Ukrainian grain with Russian grain. The development of Ukrainian grain exports would be boosted by the maximum distancing from the Russian Federation in the trade policy regarding the export of products within the Black Sea region at the expense of involvement in the trade flows of the Mediterranean region using the convention on the Pan-Euro-Med rules of origin.