ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF UPGRADING THE FREIGHT CAR FLEET OF JSC “UKRZALIZNYTSIA” ON THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE

Abstract

The authors assess the impact of upgrading the freight car fleet of JSC “Ukrzaliznytsia” on the economic development of Ukraine, provided that the government project “Purchase of domestic railway cars by Ukrzaliznytsia” is implemented. Its implementation is aimed at overcoming the problem of “narrow logistics” and may become one of the key solutions for ensuring the stable operation of JSC “Ukrzaliznytsia” by upgrading the working freight car fleet according to new standards, as well as supporting domestic freight car manufacturers.

The methodological approach to assessing the impact of this project on the economic development of Ukraine consists in revealing the economic effects at different stages of its implementation according to implementing entities, namely: at the I – investment – stage – from the standpoint of freight car production (by domestic manufacturers, with calculations for PJSC "KRCBW"); at the II – operational – stage – from the standpoint of using these railway cars (JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia"). A number of assumptions (for example, regarding the forecast of exchange rates, growth rates of Ukraine's GDP, economic characteristics of freight car operation, etc.), which allowed calculating the impact of this project on economic development in the medium and long term, have been made. The advantages are outlined and the risks are given at each stage of its implementation. The indicators for measuring the economic effects of the project are changes in: GDP, budget revenues, employment, wages and exports, which demonstrate the country's economic development. As a result of the calculations, the need to upgrade 20,000 freight cars of JSC “Ukrzaliznytsia”, produced at domestic facilities, is identified. It is proposed to upgrade the working freight car fleet in equal quantities over five years. The total amount of necessary investments for the implementation of the project is determined, and a conclusion is made about the promising outlook of its implementation, since the calculations show that the expected benefits will exceed the costs of freight car production.