PRESTIGIOUS AWARD TO SPECIALISTS OF THE INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMICS AND FORECASTING OF THE NAS OF UKRAINE IN 2022

Abstract

Leading international organization for economic research Eastern Europe Consensus Economics Forecast bestowed the award for accuracy in forecasting GDP and consumer inflation in Ukraine in 2020–2021 (Forecast Accuracy Awards Ukraine) on the team of scientists from the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine, headed by Director of the Institute, Academician of the NAS of Ukraine Valeriy Heyets and Corresponding Member of the NAS of Ukraine, Chief Researcher Mariia Skrypnychenko.

Consensus forecasts for Eastern Europe are the result of a comprehensive monthly survey of forecasters from well-known expert groups, e.g. Dragon Capital, Citigroup, Raiffeisen Research, Oxford Economics, Econ. Intelligence Unit, OTP Bank, Vienna Institute –– WIIW, Moody's Analytics, Euromonitor Int., S&P Global Mkt. Intel, Capital Economics, etc., highlighting their analytical medium-term forecasts of the national economies’ development for Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, the Russian Federation, Turkey, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Ukraine.

The Consensus Economics Forecast surveys cover individual and consensus estimates of changes in 10 to 14 macroeconomic indicators for each country. Those are, first of all, GDP, household consumption, gross investment in fixed capital, industrial production, inflation, money supply (M2), export and import of goods (fob), budget balance, current account of the balance of payments, international reserves, etc., exchange rates of currency in more than 100 countries, as well as price dynamics for over 40 key commodity groups of energy carriers and metals.

To determine forecast accuracy, the administrators of Consensus Economics Forecast reviewed GDP and consumer price inflation forecasts received in response to monthly expert group surveys conducted between January 2020 and December 2021 and compared these forecasts to corresponding reported results for 2020–2021.

This year's award is special, because it is important for Ukrainian scientists to feel international support when the aggressor country launched a full-scale invasion of our territory. More than 25 years’ experience of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine in instrumental analysis, forecasting of macroeconomic indicators, justification of economic policy parameters and assessing their impact on dynamics of economic development in Ukraine will work for the victory and will be embodied in recommendations on recovery and development of Ukrainian economy in the post-war period.