WAR-INDUCED HUMAN CAPITAL LOSSES AS A THREAT TO THE POST-WAR MODERNIZATION OF UKRAINE’S ECONOMY

Abstract

The human capital losses during the war were analyzed in the context of threats to the post-war recovery of Ukrainian economy. The priority role of human capital in modernization of economy and ensuring economic growth is substantiated. The origins of civilizational conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which in 2022 turned into a full-scale war launched by the Russian Federation that threatens the existence of Ukrainian state and nation, have been studied. The risks of war for the reproduction of human capital are systematized according to the main aspects of its formation: preservation of health and life, support of the normal family functioning, preservation and functioning of social infrastructure, conditions and opportunities for human capital realization. The loss of Ukraine's human capital as a result of the hybrid war on its territory during 2014-2021 is highlighted, which led to large GDP losses, significant population decline, massive forced internal migration and considerable decrease in investments in human development. An analysis of the current situation with human capital reproduction in the conditions of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine in 2022 was made. The channels of the main human capital losses were studied: demographic population losses; narrowed employment opportunities, which limits the use of workforce’s formed productive abilities; the destruction of the educational infrastructure, which is critical for human assets formation; threats of potential human capital losses from forced external migration. The state of the national labor market, the prospective need of the post-war economy for highly qualified specialists are discussed. The consequences of human capital loss for provision of personnel for the post-war economic recovery and modernization are analyzed. The priority tasks and measures for the preservation and accumulation of Ukraine’s human capital in the war and post-war periods have been determined.