Development of e-Commerce in Ukraine in the War and Post-War Conditions

Abstract

Introduction. In the war conditions, when remote work becomes more relevant, an extremely important task is to expand and improve the efficiency of domestic e-commerce.
Problem Statement. The Ukrainian e-commerce as an innovative business requires a complex approach to increase its efficiency, especially in the emergency conditions.
Purpose. To study the trends in the Ukrainian e-commerce market and, based on the results, to build a descriptive model of its expansion and efficiency improvement in the conditions of uncertainty caused by the Russian aggression.
Material and Methods. The study is based on the statistical data of Statista, UNCTAD, and Promodo. The methods of theoretical generalization of information, trend-based forecasting, comparative analysis, economic and statistical analysis, and the construction of a descriptive model have been used.
Results. The dynamics of the development of the global and the Ukrainian e-commerce in the period before the pandemic, during the corona crisis and during the Russian aggression have been studied. The threats to the development of e-commerce in Ukraine under the adverse conditions in both cases are similar, namely: declining business activity, increasing unemployment, decreasing income, and threat to life. The polynomial function has been established to give the most accurate forecast with a probability of 97.69%. The main areas of expansion and improvement of the efficiency of the Ukrainian e-commerce have been proposed and combined into three groups. They are aimed at strengthening the position of Ukraine in the international e-commerce market, ensuring the effective operation of Ukrainian enterprises, and protecting the consumers of goods and services in the Ukrainian e-commerce market.
Conclusions. The proposed descriptive model of the expansion and improvement of the efficiency of the Ukrainian e-commerce allows the comprehensive analysis of the trends of the studied phenomenon in the situation of increased risks caused by Russian aggression.