Ukraine: economic instability and weaknesses in commodity specialization
According to the materials of scientific report at the meeting of the Presidium of NAS of Ukraine, September 13, 2017
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15407/visn2017.10.010Keywords:
Ukraine, world prices for raw materials, commodity conjuncture, exchange rate, inflation, GDP, consolidated budget revenues, bank deposits, bank loans, loan portfolioAbstract
Structural factors of vulnerability and instability of the national economy are considered. Its specificity is defined as a small, open, commodity economy, with speculative sovereign ratings. The dynamics of world prices for key groups of commodity exports of Ukraine is analyzed. The influence of the external conjuncture on the key parameters of the national economy is proved: the exchange rate of the hryvnia, the GDP, incomes and the deficit of the consolidated budget, deposit and loan portfolios of the banking system. It is established that the neo-liberal model of the Washington consensus does not take into account the technological shortcomings and vulnerabilities of small, commodity economies. It is concluded that the level of stability of the national economy will be determined in the future by the rates of its technological renewal and technical modernization.
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