The pulse of Ukrainian society: social tensions in times of war
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15407/visn2025.11.049Keywords:
social tension; humanitarian security; OSINT; large language models; Bayesian modeling; foresight-based scenario analysis; artificial intelligence; social resilience of Ukraine.Abstract
The article presents the results of an interdisciplinary study of the dynamics of social tension in Ukraine from 2000 to 2025, based on an integrated model that combines the psychological theory of social tension with tools of artificial intelligence, OSINT analytics, and foresight-based scenario analysis. Social tension is considered as an integral indicator of social equilibrium, reflecting the collective psycho-emotional state of society under conditions of war, economic instability, and social frustration. Using data from more than two million digital messages, an emotional map of Ukrainian society was constructed, nine key crisis phases during 2004–2025 were identified, and the cyclical nature of social tension (ST) was analyzed, with an average peak ST value of 5.7±1.25 and a crisis periodicity of approximately 4–5 years. Based on the integration of quantitative assessment and the foresight approach, several scenarios for the development of the social situation in 2026–2027 were developed. The study demonstrates that a high level of social tension combines societal cohesion with the risks of exhaustion, declining trust, and social polarization. The proposed methodology can serve as the foundation for a national system of strategic monitoring of humanitarian security capable of early detection of emerging crises, supporting analytical governance of social processes, and contributing to the formulation of stabilization and social resilience policies for Ukraine during wartime and post-war recovery.
Cite this article:
Zgurovsky M.Z., Slyusarevskyy M.M. The pulse of Ukrainian society: social tensions in times of war. Visn. Nac. Akad. Nauk Ukr. 2025. (11): 49—63. https://doi.org/10.15407/visn2025.11.049
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