ASSESSING THE RELIABILITY OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS UNDER UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONTEXT OF ENSURING NATIONAL RESILIENCE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15407/scine19.04.003Keywords:
complex systems, national resilience, multi-mode objects with variable structure, methods of assessment, reliabilityAbstract
Introduction. Existing methods for assessing the resilience of key processes and objects within the state and society as complex social systems need to be developed and improved in order to enhance the accuracy and objecti vity of the results of such an assessment.
Problem Statement. There is an urgent need for the development of methods to assess the reliability of complex systems under uncertainty in the context of ensuring national resilience, which is an innovative and promising direction of interdisciplinary research.
Purpose. The purpose of this research is the development of recommendations on the formation of a methodology for assessing the continuity of governance as an element of ensuring national resilience.
Material and Methods. The methodology is based on the theoretical discussion including research of scholarly research literature and public sources using analysis, synthesis, as well as system, logical, structural-functional, comparative, abstract logical, and other methods.
Results. It has been proved that both qualitative and quantitative methods, including mathematical methods based on the theory of reliability of complex technical systems, can be used to assess the continuity of governance as a process that is generated by a complex social system. The method of a quantitative assessment of the reliability of complex technical systems has been improved by taking into account the properties of multi-mode objects, the possibility of changing their structure during the operation, and the working time of their components in different modes of operation. The effect of the advanced method has been calculated by assessing the reliability of the governmental communication system and its subsystems as an example.
Conclusions. Practical application of the methodology for assessing the continuity of governance, which should be developed on the basis of systematic and integrated application of quantitative and qualitative methods, is essential for enhancing national security and resilience strategic planning.
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