Prediction of Pollution Level Between Measurement Points by Mathematical Modeling Using Interpolation and Recursion
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15407/scine19.03.065Keywords:
water bodies quality assessment, riverbed, water body pollution consequences prediction, mathematical modeling, interpolation, recursionAbstract
Introduction. There are different mathematical modeling methods for assessing riverbed pollution consequences. Among them, there is the series of Harvey Jobson’s empirical hydrological equations, which allows measurements between a spill point and a measurement point. The measurement between two necessary points located consecutively along the riverbed is made by two calculations for these points and results comparison. Is makes it possible to predict the dynamics of the riverbed pollution spread in time and space.
Problem Statement. The forecast by two points is, likely, inconclusive because the result is an array of insufficient size. Thus, there is a need to expand a result dataset to improve understanding the accuracy of calculations of pollution spread dynamics.
Purpose. The purpose is to develop a method that determines pollution level between certain measurement points and does not require additional data. The output data for the array are the peak concentration and the time for the concentration to reach its peak at a particular point in the body of water.
Material and Methods. The mathematical method is based on the interpolation results in combination with the recursion method, as a result. The output data of the method are the concentration peak and the time for the concentration to reach its peak.
Results. In this research, the method has been developed and validated through a series of simulations. The method validity has been proven by the graphical method, with graphs similarity as main criterion.
Conclusions. Using the method together with a series of Harvey Jobson’s empirical hydrological equations as part of intelligent processing of the results makes it possible to predict pollution level between specific riverbed points, by mathematical modeling, with the help of interpolation and recursion methods and thereby to increase emergency consequences prediction accuracy.
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