Innovative Empirics of Migration-Economic Security Causal Nexus

Abstract

Introduction. In the context of spreading dynamic globalization processes, migration as a natural phenomenon and an existential sign of Ukraine’s development has become critical, which negatively affects the resource provision of the country’s economic growth.
Problem Statement. Migration (intellectual, educational, labor, stationary) deepens socio-demographic problems (depopulation of settlements, decrease in labor potential, decapitalization of determinants of human development, disappearance of the middle class), is a risk to economic security through the loss of intellectual and human, financial and investment, innovation and technological resources.
Purpose. The purpose is to determine the relationship between different types of migration and economic security, to identify critical levels and to model the effect of migration processes on the economic security of Ukraine.
Material and Methods. The critical volumes of migration processes (domestic, international, labor, and educational), the nature of their influence on the parameters of economic security of Ukraine have been estimated on the basis of nonlinear econometric models with the use of the temporal and spatial approach.
Results. The critical migration volumes have been determined: 50 thousand people for educational emigration, 120—150 and 218—235 per 100,0 thousand people for internal migration, and 0.501—0.575 for international migration. In Ukraine, the current levels of migration exceed the critical ones, as a result of a low controllability of migration processes and the underuse of the migration potential for the development and strengthening of the economic system.
Conclusions. Structural changes in migration processes adversely affect the economic system stability and contribute to the emergence of new and the spread of the existing risks to the national economy security.