Econometric Modelling of Innovation-Driven Development of Ukraine’s Industrial Capacity

Abstract

Introduction. Using the economic and mathematical evaluation methods is advisable to identify the areas of the development of innovation processes in the domestic industry and to outline their prospects for the future. In view
of this, it is important to study the dynamics of innovation indicators and to build a model of innovation-driven development of Ukraine's industrial capacity.
Problem Statement. Economic processes and crises encourage the search for new forms and methods of management to ensure competitiveness and economic stability. Econometric modeling allows mathematically estimating the effect of innovations on the growth of industrial capacity, determining changes in innovation metrics, and, consequently, forecasting and planning the outcomes and degree of innovation processes.
Purpose. The purpose of this research is to model the level of innovation-driven development of Ukraine’s industrial capacity by the method of multidimensional statistical analysis of innovation activity, for making optimal management decisions.
Materials and Methods. Methods of critical and economic analysis have been used to substantiate the econometric model, to compare and to group the innovation metrics.
Results. An algorithm for econometric modeling of innovation-driven development of industrial capacity, which contains four evaluation blocks has been developed. The dynamics of the domestic industry innovation metrics as
main constituent element have been determined, estimated, and analyzed. The integrated indices of the innovationdriven development of industrial capacity, which reflect the cumulative changes that have occurred in their values over a certain period have been given. The values range from 0.50 to 0.71, which indicates a low innovation activity.
Conclusions. Modeling of integrated indices makes it possible to forecast changes in the innovation process in the future and alternative ways of its development.