Dynamic simulation of statistical distributions of the air temperature by using the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process and the Fokker–Planck equation

Abstract

Based on the analysis of daily air temperature anomalies in Kiev during the last century, it is found that the extreme positive anomaly naturally can reach +15.13 ºC, exceeding the observed maximum by 1º. The climate process was stable and not subjected to human-induced deformations. We propose a stochastic model of the dynamics of air temperature anomalies, which is built on the "Wiener walks" held under natural climatic boundaries of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process.