“Black Swans” of the Ukrainian Revolution: (Im)Probable Cases of the Western Ukrainian Statehood

Abstract

The purpose of the study are understudied and disputable aspects of the Ukrainian Revolution, mainly on how Western Ukrainian statehood was established and developed in 1918– 1919, as well as some specific issues of the political history of Western Ukrainian People’s Republic (WUPR) in 1918–1923, building up on the theory of Black Swans developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a Lebanese-American mathematician.

The research methodology is based on the principles of historicism, ethnical politology, systemicity, science, interdisciplinarity. The following general historiographical methods are used: historiographical analysis, historical-genetic, terminological analysis, comparative, typological. The author adheres to the methodology of institutionalization of political actors in the context of politicization of ethnicities.

The scientific novelty. The first hypothesis studies the November Action as the Black Swan of Western Ukrainian statehood. The second deals with the events of 3 January 1919 when the Ukrainian National Rada (Council) approved the union of WUPR and Ukrainian People’s Republic (UPR) that in the author’s opinion is an example of the Black Swan because its (non)implementation had far more grave consequences than its contemporaries thought it would. The third theory analyses another Black Swan, which is the nomination of Ye.Petrushevych as a dictator on 9 June 1919 that led to the return to WUPR legal framework and the pursuit of the independent “Halychyna State”.

Conclusions. The first hypothesis demonstrates that the November Action of 31 October – 1 November 1918 testifies not only to Taleb’s transition from Mediocristan that is the Habsburg Empire, a tyranny of the collective, to Extremistan represented by WUPR, a tyranny of the accidental, but also to the Black Swan event that had epochal consequences for the studied region. The author is certain, the November Action became the Black Swan not only for Halychyna Ukrainians (to some extent, though) but also for “strangers”, first of all for Poles and Jews residing in Halychyna. On the other hand, the November Action, as the Black Swan, sparked a new warfare (after World War I) first for Lviv and then for Halychyna. Therefore, this situation just aggravates the Black Swan problem as an (im)probable event of Western Ukrainian statehood in 1918–1919. The second hypothesis indicates that WUPR being Extremistan after the November Action (1 November 1918) suffered from the Black Swan. Experience of the past did not help regional political actors to foresee the future including the one for Halychyna and for WUPR. The tyranny of the accidental that was the emotionally tinged decision of the Ukrainian National Rada on 3 January 1919, happened again, and the winner, the Ukrainian National Rada, took all it aspired to, i.e. joining the Ukrainian National Rada. The history started “jumping” again – this time after 22 January 1919. However, keeping Taleb’s contemplations in mind, the second Black Swan is more likely to be nearly-Black or Grey given the fact that its occurrence was foreseen first by external and then by internal political actors after December 1918. They were ready to that happening which eventually took place on 3 January 1919, and the Preliminary Agreement being signed in Fastiv worked as a suitable tool. The third hypothesis proves, the introduction of Dictatorship on 9 June 1919, indirectly though, in a certain way led to the change of Halychyna’s status on the geo-political chessboard of Europe. This new status got embodied through a “cascade” of events: 1) the decision of the Supreme Council at the Paris Peace Conference on 25 June 1919 to allow Poland to take over Halychyna; 2) the Treaty of Warsaw (Piłsudski – Petliura Agreement) of 1920 under which Eastern Halychyna, among other lands, was ceded to Poland; 3) the Treaty of Riga of 1921 which de facto abrogated the Treaty of Warsaw, whereas UkSSR renounced its claims to Eastern Halychyna by handing it over to II Rzeczpospolita; 4) by its decision of 15 March 1923, the Conference of Ambassadors of the great powers of the Entente recognized the sovereignty of Poland with Eastern Halychyna being part of its territory. In the conclusions author emphasizes that under Taleb’s theory, the Black Swans of the Ukrainian revolution scaled down to Western Ukraine could be assigned to the respective quadrants: the first Black Swan (the November Action) to the Fourth Quadrant of the positive Black Swan, the third Swan (Dictatorship of the Western Province of UPR) also to the Fourth Quadrant but of the negative Back Swan. Though, the second Black Swan or the first and the only Grey Swan (Ukrainian National Rada’s decision on the union) is most likely to be in the Third Quadrant which implies simple payoffs, i.e. the probability of this Swan had no impact on the final result (22 January 1919). Hence, they are only the November Action and the Dictatorship that fit in the Fourth Quadrant of the Black Swan domain.