ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНА СТРАТЕГІЯ: ПРОГНОЗИ І РЕАЛІЇ (ОГЛЯД)

Анотація

Introduction. At the present stage of the development of Ukraine, in the face of challenges and risks, it is extremely important to shape the national energy policy.
Problem Statement. The energy development strategy of Ukraine shall provide for the transition from the import of raw materials to the energy-efficient development of the fuel and energy complex using the results of fundamental and applied research in the field of natural and socio-economic sciences, the domestic innovative potential and R&D projects. 
Purpose. To overview the conceptual approaches related to forecasting (predicting, foresight) the life of society as a whole, and the development of power engineering, in particular.
Materials and Methods. A literary review of authoritative sources on methods for forecasting the development of power engineering, including that in Ukraine, has been presented.
Results. The research presents a retrospective look at the status of Ukraine’s power engineering until the 1990s and in the period of independence of the state. It was emphasized that the energy strategies of Ukraine as adopted in 1996, 2006, and in 2013 did not reach their purposes and indicators even in the medium-term prospects. In 2017, Ukraine adopted the fourth energy strategy, with the following main targets: safety, energy efficiency, and competitiveness. The last (fourth) energy strategy (ES-35) was developed in extreme conditions, under the influence of global changes in the world energy trends and numerous challenges for the domestic power engineering. Illustrative energy development schemes that characterize the complexity of energy forecasting and the need to take into account a number of key factors have been presented. The energy strategy of Ukraine and, in particular the ES-35, will depend on “the energy contours of the new world”, i.e. the energy trends and scenarios, as well as the global and local risks. The expected key parameters and indicators of the energy strategy may not coincide with the implemented values.
Conclusions. The energy strategy of Ukraine and, in particular, the ES-35, will depend on “the energy contours of the new world,” i.e. the energy trends and scenarios, as well as the global and local risks. The expected key parameters and indicators of the energy strategy may not coincide with the implemented values.